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Hüseyin Semerci's Views on the Effects of Coronavirus


“I find it useful to address the effects of coronavirus in three ways. First scenario; If it is mainly in China, which does not seem so at the moment, it started to appear in other countries quickly. This creates serious uncertainty. There may be short-term opportunities, but this scenario also poses serious problems in the medium and long-term. Because China is the world's largest exporter as well as the largest importer.


If China does not produce and cannot produce, problems related to security of supply may begin. With the domino effect, we may face many problems that will affect all sectors, from raw material supply to intermediate goods supply, that will break the supply chain and ultimately turn costs upside down.


The second scenario, which is the worst scenario; It would be a miracle or a lie for the virus to emerge in Turkey, which we do not meet with this situation. I think we took the precautions late and didn't do our homework well against possible infections. I hope not, but we may encounter serious cases all of a sudden. This possibility puts us in serious difficulty in our largest market, the EU market. As we all know, our biggest market is the EU, and we export half of our exports to the EU. With Iran, which has a very small share in our exports, we were too late to take precautions against human traffic. Even with the others, we always took the measures behind.


Well, what is it, if we say that under the influence of the virus in Europe, it started everywhere, believe me, we would be deceiving ourselves, let it be known that they will not show us the tolerance they show to each other. Just as they will not step into our country, they will not let us in through their doors.


The EU is our biggest market, but we are not the EU's biggest market. It hurts a lot… The third scenario; If it turns into a global and incurable epidemic, which I highly doubt. A great chaos ensues. The world tries to go back to the 1990s, but it can't do that either."

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